If you are applying to university before completing your A-levels, there is an obvious problem: universities need to consider your application before they know what grades you will actually achieve.
Predicted grades help bridge that gap. A UCAS predicted grade represents the grade your school, college or other referee believes you are likely to achieve in positive circumstances. Universities can then consider those predictions alongside the other information in your application when deciding whether to make an offer.
Predicted grades are important, but they are not your final A-level results and they are not guarantees. Different universities can also use them differently within their admissions processes.
Understanding how A-level predicted grades work can make university applications feel considerably less mysterious, particularly if you are worried that an early assessment or disappointing piece of work has already determined your future.
What Is an A-Level Predicted Grade?
A predicted grade is an estimate of the grade you are expected to achieve in a qualification you have not yet completed.
If you are studying three A-levels and applying to university before sitting your final examinations, predicted grades can be provided for those pending qualifications as part of the UCAS application process.
Your predictions might therefore appear as AAB, BBB or another combination, depending on the judgement made for each individual subject.
They are not replacement results.
You still need to complete the assessments required by your A-level courses, and the grades you eventually achieve are what determine your final qualification results.
Predicted grades exist because applications and final examinations happen at different points in the academic calendar.
Who Decides Your Predicted A-Level Grades?
For students applying through a school or college, predicted grades are generally determined through the centre and submitted as part of the UCAS application process.
Exactly how a school arrives at those predictions can vary.
Teachers may consider internal assessments, previous performance, current work and evidence of academic progress. Professional judgement is also involved because a predicted grade is intended to represent what the student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances rather than simply copying the mark from one classroom test.
This means there is not one national formula that every teacher enters into a calculator.
Your school or college should be able to explain its own process, so ask if you are uncertain about how your predictions will be determined.
Knowing the criteria early also gives you a clearer understanding of which pieces of work and assessment are likely to provide useful evidence of your progress.
Do Universities See Your Predicted Grades?
Yes, predicted grades can form part of the information universities receive through the UCAS application process.
Universities can use that information to help understand your academic potential while your qualifications are still pending.
The amount of importance placed on predictions varies.
One university or course may rely heavily on academic indicators when deciding whom to consider, while another may examine predictions alongside a broader range of application information.
This is why predicted grades should not be treated as the only thing universities care about.
Subject requirements matter too. Our guide to whether universities care which A-levels you take explains why achieving strong predicted grades does not compensate for missing a subject that a particular degree requires.
University admissions decisions are made in context rather than by looking at one number in isolation.
How Accurate Are Predicted Grades?
Predicted grades are estimates, so they cannot be perfectly accurate.
Students improve at different rates. Some perform considerably better in final examinations than earlier assessments suggested, while others ultimately achieve lower grades than predicted.
UCAS itself acknowledges the difference between predicted and achieved grades. Its current guidance says predicted grades should be achievable, objective and informed by evidence, while recognising that students will not always ultimately achieve those predictions.
This is worth remembering if you become overly focused on whether a prediction perfectly forecasts your final result.
It cannot.
The prediction has a practical purpose within the application process. Your eventual grade has a different purpose: recording what you actually achieved in the qualification.
What Evidence Is Used to Predict A-Level Grades?
Schools and colleges can have their own approaches, but predictions should be supported by evidence rather than simply chosen because a student wants a particular university offer.
Internal examinations may contribute. So might assessed work, classroom performance, progress over time and the standard you are currently demonstrating within the course.
One poor piece of work therefore does not necessarily determine the prediction.
Equally, achieving an excellent mark once does not automatically demonstrate that the same standard can be maintained across the complete qualification.
Consistency matters because teachers are trying to make a reasonable judgement about future attainment.
If your current performance is below the grade you hope to be predicted, ask what evidence would demonstrate improvement. That creates a much more productive conversation than simply arguing that you need a higher prediction.
Can You Ask Your Teacher to Raise Your Predicted Grade?
You can certainly discuss a predicted grade with your teacher or school.
There may be useful context they have not fully considered, particularly if illness, disruption or another circumstance affected an important assessment.
You can also ask what evidence would be needed to support a different prediction.
What you should not assume is that a grade can simply be increased because a particular university asks for it.
Predicted grades need to remain credible. Inflating a prediction does not change the academic standard you will eventually need to demonstrate, particularly if a university makes a conditional offer requiring those grades.
If you disagree with a prediction, approach the conversation through evidence.
Ask why the grade was chosen, explain any relevant circumstances and find out whether there are further opportunities to demonstrate your current level.
What Happens If Your Predicted Grades Are Lower Than University Entry Requirements?
Start by investigating the course carefully rather than assuming your application is automatically impossible.
Published entry requirements matter, but universities make their own admissions decisions and can consider applications in different ways. You should research individual institutions rather than assuming every course treats a predicted grade below its published requirement identically.
It is also sensible to build a balanced university shortlist.
Applying only to courses where your predicted grades are substantially below the stated requirements can create unnecessary risk. Equally, predictions should not automatically discourage you from researching an ambitious option alongside alternatives that align more closely with your academic profile.
Use the official UCAS predicted grades guidance alongside individual university admissions information when planning your choices.
The objective is to understand your position, not to treat one predicted grade as a verdict on where you are allowed to apply.
What If Your Actual A-Level Grades Are Higher Than Predicted?
Your achieved grades become the evidence of what you actually accomplished.
A student predicted BBB might ultimately achieve AAB. The original prediction does not reduce those final results.
If you already hold a university offer and meet its conditions, the fact that your earlier prediction was lower is unlikely to be the issue that matters at that point.
Stronger-than-expected grades can also give you different options depending on your circumstances and when you next apply.
This illustrates why predicted grades should be kept in perspective.
They matter during a particular stage of the admissions process. They do not permanently attach themselves to your A-level certificate or override your final results.
What If Your Actual Grades Are Lower Than Predicted?
This is also possible.
A prediction is not a promise that you will receive that grade in August. You still need to perform sufficiently well in the qualification’s assessments.
If your university offer is conditional, the conditions of that offer become important when your actual results are released.
Missing a predicted grade does not itself create the problem. What matters is whether your achieved results satisfy the conditions required for your next step.
Universities can make their own decisions when applicants miss offer conditions, so do not assume the outcome before checking your application status.
The best response during the academic year is to treat a strong prediction as evidence that the grade is attainable, not as evidence that the work is already finished.
How Do Predicted Grades Work for Online A-Level Students?
Online learners can apply to university too, but the practical process can differ from that of a student whose application is managed entirely by a sixth form.
Students taking distance learning A-level courses should investigate the UCAS application and reference process well before they intend to submit an application.
UCAS has specific arrangements for independent applicants. Where an applicant has pending qualifications, the referee can be asked to provide predicted grades. UCAS also provides an option for a referee who is genuinely unable to provide predictions.
This makes choosing an appropriate referee important.
Do not wait until immediately before your application deadline to discover that you need somebody capable of commenting meaningfully on your academic progress.
Online learning offers considerable independence, but university applications still require forward planning.
Are Predicted Grades the Same as Mock Exam Grades?
No.
A mock examination result can contribute evidence towards a predicted grade, but the two terms do not mean the same thing.
A mock grade tells you how you performed in a particular assessment at a particular point in time.
A predicted grade looks forward.
Your teacher may believe that your current work, progress and academic trajectory indicate that you are capable of achieving a higher final grade than the one produced by an early mock. Alternatively, repeated assessment evidence may suggest that a particularly strong isolated result is not yet representative of your normal performance.
This is another reason not to interpret every classroom grade as though it were your final A-level result.
Assessments are evidence. Your prediction is a judgement informed by evidence.
Do Predicted Grades Affect Your Final A-Level Results?
No.
Your final result is determined through the assessment process for the qualification, not by the grade somebody predicted months earlier.
If you were predicted a C and eventually perform at an A standard, you can achieve the corresponding final grade. The prediction does not place a ceiling on your result.
Likewise, an A* prediction does not protect you if your final assessments do not reach the required standard.
Students preparing independently should therefore remain focused on the actual assessment requirements. Our exams and assessments guidance explains some of the practical arrangements involved for online and private candidates.
Predictions matter for applications. Preparation matters for results.
What Should You Do If You Are Worried About Your Predicted Grades?
Find out where you actually stand before worrying about what might happen.
Ask how your school, college or referee determines predictions and when those decisions will be made. If you already know your likely grades, compare them with the current requirements for university courses you are genuinely considering.
Then concentrate on the part you can influence.
If your performance needs to improve, identify exactly where marks are being lost. Seek feedback, practise weaker areas and build a stronger body of evidence through your work.
A predicted grade is intended to represent academic potential based on the evidence available. The most convincing way to influence that evidence is to improve the standard of work you are producing.
Most importantly, do not mistake prediction for destiny.
Your predicted grades can influence university applications, but they are still estimates made before your A-levels are complete. The final chapter of the qualification is written by what you go on to achieve.